Understanding Complex Data: Climate Change


How will climate change impact Nova Scotia? Nova Scotia Environment and Climate Change regularly reviews the latest climate change data to understand what it means for our province. With implications that affect our communities, our environment, our health, our economy, and much more, it is important for Nova Scotians to have access to information on how the climate is changing so that we can make good decisions about how to respond and adapt.
Localized climate change data is useful for many purposes, such as:
  • Designing buildings and infrastructure to better withstand climate impacts;
  • Identifying what types of crops might grow well under changing climate conditions;
  • Protecting public health from emerging climate hazards like extreme heat;
  • Conservation planning for species and ecosystems; and
  • Adapting to the impacts of sea level rise along our coasts.

Terms Used

The following are definitions of some of the terms used in the sections below.
Climate indicators: Statistical characteristics of the climate, such as temperature and precipitation. Examining trends in these indicators helps us understand how the climate is changing.
Emissions scenarios: A description of the future evolution of the climate, under specific assumptions about trends in greenhouse gas emissions and other factors that may influence the climate. A high emission scenario results in more climatic changes than a low emission scenario.
Greenhouse gases: Gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit heat and that cause the greenhouse effect. The most important greenhouse gases emitted by human activities include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Too high a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can result in a dangerous level of planetary warming.
Median: The fiftieth percentile (p50), or mid-point, of the model range. The median represents the value which climate models show the most agreement around, as there are an equal number of projected outcomes that fall above and below this value.
Percentile(s): Climate change studies use results from multiple climate models. The percentile refers to a number that a certain percentage of model results fall below. For example, the fifth percentile (p05) indicates that only 5% of results are below this value, while the ninety fifth percentile (p95) indicates that only 5% of results are above this value (and 95% below). The percentiles provide an indication of how closely different climate models agree on a particular outcome.
Range: The difference between the fifth and ninety fifth percentiles of the climate model results. This range captures the most likely range of outcomes according to 90% of the climate models.

Modeling Climate Change

Climate change data comes from global climate models that have been developed by different research groups around the world. These models simulate the processes in Earth’s land, atmosphere, and oceans, and allow researchers to experiment with how increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will impact the global climate system. Output from global climate models is often downscaled to be more appropriate for local analysis and decision-making.
We don’t know exactly what the future will look like. Depending on the choices our global community makes today, the future amount of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere could be quite different. To help us ensure that our decisions are appropriate under a range of possible outcomes, we use climate change scenarios that represent different possible futures – some with high greenhouse gas emissions and some with low. We can also compare the results from different climate model simulations to determine the mid-point (median) and range of the results.
This graph shows how the output from a number of individual models (black lines) can be used to calculate the percentile range (shaded in red) and the median (thick red line), using a small temperature dataset as an example. Further information on understanding multi-model ensembles can be found at: https://climatedata.ca/resource/multi-model-ensembles/.

Climate Change Data on the Open Data Portal

Nova Scotia Environment and Climate Change has released the climate change data that informed the province’s 2022 climate change risk assessment, Weathering What’s Ahead, on the Open Data Portal. This dataset contains climate change projections for each of the province’s eighteen census divisions (counties) and averaged across the entire province. Included in the dataset are 88 climate indicators, with results calculated for two emissions scenarios, four time periods, and three different percentiles.
  • The emission scenarios include low emissions (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5),
  • Four averaged 30-year time periods include 1981-2010, 2015-2045, 2035-2065, and 2065-2095, and
  • The three percentiles include p05, p50, and p95.
The map below shows one example from this dataset: mean annual temperature for each county in the province for the period 2065-2095 using the median (p50) for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
This information was produced using a collection of 27 climate models as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Further details on the methods used can be found in Appendix B of the 2022 Understanding Climate Change Impacts in Relation to Wellbeing for Nova Scotia: Final Synthesis Report.
The following charts show some of the ways the Nova Scotia Climate Change Projections dataset can be analyzed, looking at how one variable – mean annual temperature – varies over time, across regions, and across percentiles.

Mean Annual Temperature Over Time in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5 scenario, p50)

This chart illustrates how the NS Climate Change Projections dataset can be used to analyze changes over time for one climate variable. Results for mean annual temperature are depicted across four time periods (1981-2010, 2015-2045, 2035-2065, and 2065-2095), showing the projected warming of our climate in future decades. Each value shown uses the same geographic region (the province of Nova Scotia), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and model percentile (p50, the ensemble median).

Mean Annual Temperature Across Regions in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5 scenario, p50, 2065-2095)

This chart illustrates how the NS Climate Change Projections dataset can be used to analyze changes between regions for one climate variable. Results for mean annual temperature are depicted across 19 geographic regions (the 18 provincial counties as well as the entire province of Nova Scotia), showing the projected warming of our climate in each location. Each value shown uses the same time period (2065-2095), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and model percentile (p50, the ensemble median).

Mean Annual Temperature Uncertainty in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5 scenario, 2065-2095)

This chart illustrates how the NS Climate Change Projections dataset can be used to analyze uncertainty for one climate variable. Results for mean annual temperature are depicted across three model percentiles (p05, p50, p95), which show the projected warming of our climate at the low end (5%), median (50%), and high end (95%) of the model range. Each value shown uses the same geographic region (the province of Nova Scotia), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and time period (2065-2095).

Sea Level Rise Data on the Open Data Portal

Nova Scotia Environment and Climate Change has also released the sea level rise dataset used in the province’s 2022 climate change risk assessment, Weathering What’s Ahead, on the Open Data Portal. This dataset also contains projections for the province of Nova Scotia and its 18 counties for two emissions scenarios, four time periods, and three different percentiles. The sea level rise values given are roughly equivalent to the expected sea level rise for the middle year of each time period, for example, the sea level rise value for 2065-2095 is approximately the expected sea level rise for the year 2080. The maximum, mean, and minimum values for each region represent the statistics for projected mean sea level at different locations within each county, representing how the median projected sea level rise varies at different places along the province’s shoreline.
The following shows one example from this dataset: mean relative sea level rise for each county in the province for the period 2065-2095 using the median (p50) for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Since sea level rise tends to be relatively linear, the averaged 2065-2095 values shown are roughly the mean amount of sea level rise anticipated for the year 2080.
Sea level rise projections were developed for Canada by James et al. (Geological Survey of Canada, 2021, Open File 8764). This information includes contributions to sea level rise from warming temperatures that cause seawater to expand in volume, from melting land ice which increases runoff into oceans, and from the ongoing subsidence (sinking) of land in our region. Sea level projections are relative to the average sea level over the base period 1986-2005. The full methodology and references can be found in Appendix B of the 2022 Nova Scotia climate change risk assessment report.
The following charts illustrate some of the different ways the NS Sea Level Rise Projections dataset can be analyzed, looking at how projected mean sea level varies over time, across regions, and across percentiles.

Sea Level Rise Over Time in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5 scenario)

This chart illustrates how the NS Sea Level Rise Projections dataset can be used to analyze changes over time for mean projected sea level. Results are depicted across four time periods (1981-2010, 2015-2045, 2035-2065, and 2065-2095), showing the projected rise in sea level in future decades. Each value shown uses the same geographic region (the province of Nova Scotia), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and model percentile (p50, the ensemble median).

Sea Level Rise Across Regions in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5 scenario, 2080)

This chart illustrates how the NS Sea Level Rise Projections dataset can be used to analyze changes between regions for mean projected sea level. Results are depicted across 19 geographic regions (the 18 provincial counties as well as the entire province of Nova Scotia), showing the projected rise in sea level for each location. Each value shown uses the same time period (2065-2095), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and model percentile (p50, the ensemble median). 

Sea Level Rise Uncertainty in Nova Scotia (RCP8.5, 2080)

This chart illustrates how the NS Sea Level Rise Projections dataset can be used to analyze uncertainty for mean projected sea level. Results are depicted across three model percentiles (p05, p50, p95), which show the projected rise in sea level at the low end (5%), median (50%), and high end (95%) of the model range. Each value shown uses the same geographic region (the province of Nova Scotia), emissions scenario (RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario), and time period (2065-2095). 

Links to Additional Sources

More climate change information for Nova Scotia can be found at these links:
  • NS climate change website: https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/
  • CLIMAtlantic: https://climatlantic.ca/. Atlantic Canada’s climate services hub, which facilitates access to regionally relevant climate information and supports its effective use in planning and decision making.
  • Climate Atlas of Canada: https://climateatlas.ca/. Start learning about climate change in Canada through mapping and storytelling.
  • ClimateData.ca: https://climatedata.ca/. Start exploring case studies and downloading location-based climate data by variable or sector.
  • Power Analytics and Visualization for Climate Science (PAVICS): https://pavics.ouranos.ca/index.html. Advanced tools for academia, climate scenario developers, and other expert users.

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